Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 24.774918 29.618117 34.935080 41.176250 48.271286 56.055790 65.211274
2025-06-29 18.082027 24.562056 32.379439 42.374807 54.676056 69.177421 87.410365
2025-07-06 12.882683 19.523562 28.191446 40.060105 55.588257 74.899090 100.378622
2025-07-13 10.636007 17.627743 27.346975 41.379587 60.602031 85.460934 119.412428
2025-07-20 8.914659 16.047686 26.545661 42.427260 65.059469 95.309187 137.821433
2025-07-27 7.685492 14.928764 26.153666 43.849361 69.942753 105.809011 157.435363
2025-08-03 6.623120 13.852295 25.621546 44.903330 74.239446 115.595100 176.406442
2025-08-10 5.442403 12.331288 24.150396 44.304626 75.964053 121.744719 190.506329
2025-08-17 4.664486 11.375526 23.447903 44.775166 79.220250 130.126258 207.972989
2025-08-24 3.915309 10.315599 22.405734 44.542016 81.294773 136.786402 223.142481
2025-08-31 3.129781 9.001129 20.711744 43.004040 81.125854 140.000785 233.312813
2025-09-07 2.775472 8.546884 20.547597 44.069430 85.182432 149.734964 253.409983
2025-09-14 2.207010 7.499787 19.171939 42.993676 85.889197 154.756676 267.335861
2025-09-21 1.929350 7.106206 19.073065 44.282376 90.731005 166.579291 292.238895
2025-09-28 1.430015 5.952654 17.162959 41.887498 88.957805 167.679026 300.552392
2025-10-05 1.260748 5.690592 17.176852 43.254513 93.919961 179.905417 326.696571
2025-10-12 1.098828 5.396614 17.065468 44.339594 98.408505 191.502760 352.201839
2025-10-19 0.977435 5.195649 17.143161 45.812155 103.678457 204.591456 380.496070
2025-10-26 0.854697 4.944220 17.051957 46.903299 108.271965 216.684374 407.526495
2025-11-02 0.686329 4.442733 16.222176 46.283501 109.526280 223.062904 425.370980
2025-11-09 0.581915 4.152459 15.905923 46.770624 112.940432 233.292485 449.856138
2025-11-16 0.473778 3.786067 15.304889 46.529262 114.870783 240.951165 470.240046
2025-11-23 0.354630 3.282340 14.190630 44.936882 113.942033 243.435991 481.927870